Search Results for author: Sebastian M Schmon

Found 6 papers, 2 papers with code

Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model Criticism

no code implementations12 Oct 2022 Daniel Ward, Patrick Cannon, Mark Beaumont, Matteo Fasiolo, Sebastian M Schmon

In this work we revisit neural posterior estimation (NPE), a class of algorithms that enable black-box parameter inference in simulation models, and consider the implication of a simulation-to-reality gap.

Amortised Likelihood-free Inference for Expensive Time-series Simulators with Signatured Ratio Estimation

no code implementations23 Feb 2022 Joel Dyer, Patrick Cannon, Sebastian M Schmon

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible.

Time Series Time Series Analysis

Approximate Bayesian Computation with Path Signatures

1 code implementation23 Jun 2021 Joel Dyer, Patrick Cannon, Sebastian M Schmon

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable.

Time Series Time Series Analysis

Deep Signature Statistics for Likelihood-free Time-series Models

no code implementations ICML Workshop INNF 2021 Joel Dyer, Patrick W Cannon, Sebastian M Schmon

Our approach leverages deep signature transforms, trained concurrently with a neural density estimator, to produce informative statistics for multivariate sequential data that encode important geometric properties of the underlying path.

Time Series Time Series Analysis

Optimal scaling of random-walk Metropolis algorithms using Bayesian large-sample asymptotics

no code implementations13 Apr 2021 Sebastian M Schmon, Philippe Gagnon

The assumptions under which weak convergence results are proved are however restrictive: the target density is typically assumed to be of a product form.

Generalized Posteriors in Approximate Bayesian Computation

1 code implementation pproximateinference AABI Symposium 2021 Sebastian M Schmon, Patrick W Cannon, Jeremias Knoblauch

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a key method in simulation-based inference, wherein the true model likelihood and posterior are approximated using samples from the simulator.

Bayesian Inference

Cannot find the paper you are looking for? You can Submit a new open access paper.