1 code implementation • 17 Jan 2023 • Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall, Thomas House
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting.
1 code implementation • 15 Feb 2022 • Christopher E. Overton, Luke Webb, Uma Datta, Mike Fursman, Jo Hardstaff, Iina Hiironen, Karthik Paranthaman, Heather Riley, James Sedgwick, Julia Verne, Steve Willner, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall
To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission.
1 code implementation • 14 Jan 2022 • Joe Hilton, Heather Riley, Lorenzo Pellis, Rabia Aziza, Samuel P. C. Brand, Ivy K. Kombe, John Ojal, Andrea Parisi, Matt J. Keeling, D. James Nokes, Robert Manson-Sawko, Thomas House
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19.
no code implementations • 12 Oct 2021 • Christopher E. Overton, Lorenzo Pellis, Helena B. Stage, Francesca Scarabel, Joshua Burton, Christophe Fraser, Ian Hall, Thomas A. House, Chris Jewell, Anel Nurtay, Filippo Pagani, Katrina A. Lythgoe
In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic.
no code implementations • 14 Jul 2021 • Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Emma Pritchard, Angela R. McLean, A. Sarah Walker
We investigate the distribution of numbers of secondary cases in households in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS CIS), stratified by timing of vaccination and infection in the households.
no code implementations • 25 Jun 2020 • Helena B. Stage, Joseph Shingleton, Sanmitra Ghosh, Francesca Scarabel, Lorenzo Pellis, Thomas Finnie
By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation.
no code implementations • 21 Jun 2020 • Robin N Thompson, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham, Daniel Arribas-Bel, Ben Ashby, Tom Britton, Peter Challoner, Lauren H K Chappell, Hannah Clapham, Nik J Cunniffe, A Philip Dawid, Christl A Donnelly, Rosalind Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Nigel Gilbert, Julia R Gog, Paul Glendinning, William S Hart, Hans Heesterbeek, Thomas House, Matt Keeling, Istvan Z Kiss, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Alun L Lloyd, Emma S McBryde, James M McCaw, Joel C Miller, Trevelyan J McKinley, Martina Morris, Philip D ONeill, Carl A B Pearson, Kris V Parag, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R C Pulliam, Joshua V Ross, Michael J Tildesley, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Bernard W Silverman, Claudio J Struchiner, Pieter Trapman, Cerian R Webb, Denis Mollison, Olivier Restif
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
1 code implementation • 11 May 2020 • Christopher E. Overton, Helena B. Stage, Shazaad Ahmad, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Paul Dark, Rajenki Das, Elizabeth Fearon, Timothy Felton, Martyn Fyles, Nick Gent, Ian Hall, Thomas House, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Lorenzo Pellis, Robert Sawko, Andrew Ustianowski, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy.
Populations and Evolution Physics and Society
1 code implementation • 31 Mar 2020 • Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made.
Populations and Evolution
