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Repeat Voting: Two-Vote May Lead More People To Vote
A "repeat voting" procedure is proposed, whereby voting is carried out in two identical rounds.
Forecast Hedging and Calibration
Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close.
Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, Finite Recall, and Nash Dynamics
We propose to smooth out the calibration score, which measures how good a forecaster is, by combining nearby forecasts.
Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state.
Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof
A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibrated forecasts by the minimax theorem, which moreover shows that $N^3$ periods suffice to guarantee a calibration error of at most $1/N$.
"Calibeating": Beating Forecasters at Their Own Game
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score.
