Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format

5 code implementations • 26 May 2020 • Johannes Bracher, Evan L. Ray, Tilmann Gneiting, Nicholas G. Reich

For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive intervals at various levels.

Applications Populations and Evolution

Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting with incomplete data

no code implementations • 26 Jul 2019 • Thomas McAndrew, Nicholas G. Reich

We propose an adaptive ensemble forecast that (i) changes model weights week-by-week throughout the influenza season, (ii) only needs the current influenza season's data to make predictions, and (iii) by introducing a prior distribution, shrinks weights toward the reference equal weighting approach and adjusts for observed ILI percentages that are subject to future revisions.

Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles

no code implementations • 31 Mar 2017 • Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission.