1 code implementation • 4 Aug 2023 • Samuel Duffield, Samuel Power, Lorenzo Rimella
We summarise popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov models.
1 code implementation • 26 May 2022 • Michael Whitehouse, Nick Whiteley, Lorenzo Rimella
In contrast to the popular ODE approach to compartmental modelling, in which a large population limit is used to motivate a deterministic model, PALs are derived from approximate filtering equations for finite-population, stochastic compartmental models, and the large population limit drives consistency of maximum PAL estimators.
1 code implementation • 24 Jun 2020 • Nick Whiteley, Lorenzo Rimella
We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability.
no code implementations • 15 Apr 2020 • Lorenzo Rimella, Nick Whiteley
We define an evolving in time Bayesian neural network called a Hidden Markov neural network.
1 code implementation • 5 Feb 2019 • Lorenzo Rimella, Nick Whiteley
We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models.