no code implementations • 14 Jan 2022 • Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US.
1 code implementation • 23 Jul 2020 • Paolo Andreini, Cosimo Izzo, Giovanni Ricco
A novel deep neural network framework -- that we refer to as Deep Dynamic Factor Model (D$^2$FM) --, is able to encode the information available, from hundreds of macroeconomic and financial time-series into a handful of unobserved latent states.
1 code implementation • 25 Jun 2020 • Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve and temporary fluctuations in energy prices.