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Forecasting Competitions with Correlated Events
We initiate the study of forecasting competitions for correlated events.
Consistent Polyhedral Surrogates for Top-$k$ Classification and Variants
For the proposed hinge-like surrogates that are convex (i. e., polyhedral), we apply the recent embedding framework of Finocchiaro et al. (2019; 2022) to determine the prediction problem for which the surrogate is consistent.
Efficient Competitions and Online Learning with Strategic Forecasters
Winner-take-all competitions in forecasting and machine-learning suffer from distorted incentives.
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