Model-Free Reconstruction of Capacity Degradation Trajectory of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Early Cycle Data

Early degradation prediction of lithium-ion batteries is crucial for ensuring safety and preventing unexpected failure in manufacturing and diagnostic processes. Long-term capacity trajectory predictions can fail due to cumulative errors and noise. To address this issue, this study proposes a data-centric method that uses early single-cycle data to predict the capacity degradation trajectory of lithium-ion cells. The method involves predicting a few knots at specific retention levels using a deep learning-based model and interpolating them to reconstruct the trajectory. Two approaches are used to identify the retention levels of two to four knots: uniformly dividing the retention up to the end of life and finding optimal locations using Bayesian optimization. The proposed model is validated with experimental data from 169 cells using five-fold cross-validation. The results show that mean absolute percentage errors in trajectory prediction are less than 1.60% for all cases of knots. By predicting only the cycle numbers of at least two knots based on early single-cycle charge and discharge data, the model can directly estimate the overall capacity degradation trajectory. Further experiments suggest using three-cycle input data to achieve robust and efficient predictions, even in the presence of noise. The method is then applied to predict various shapes of capacity degradation patterns using additional experimental data from 82 cells. The study demonstrates that collecting only the cycle information of a few knots during model training and a few early cycle data points for predictions is sufficient for predicting capacity degradation. This can help establish appropriate warranties or replacement cycles in battery manufacturing and diagnosis processes.