Effective Benchmarks for Optical Turbulence Modeling

7 Jan 2024  ยท  Christopher Jellen, Charles Nelson, Cody Brownell, John Burkhardt ยท

Optical turbulence presents a significant challenge for communication, directed energy, and imaging systems, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. Effective modeling of optical turbulence strength is critical for the development and deployment of these systems. The lack of standard evaluation tools, especially long-term data sets, modeling tasks, metrics, and baseline models, prevent effective comparisons between approaches and models. This reduces the ease of reproducing results and contributes to over-fitting on local micro-climates. Performance characterized using evaluation metrics provides some insight into the applicability of a model for predicting the strength of optical turbulence. However, these metrics are not sufficient for understanding the relative quality of a model. We introduce the \texttt{otbench} package, a Python package for rigorous development and evaluation of optical turbulence strength prediction models. The package provides a consistent interface for evaluating optical turbulence models on a variety of benchmark tasks and data sets. The \texttt{otbench} package includes a range of baseline models, including statistical, data-driven, and deep learning models, to provide a sense of relative model quality. \texttt{otbench} also provides support for adding new data sets, tasks, and evaluation metrics. The package is available at \url{https://github.com/cdjellen/otbench}.

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Task Dataset Model Metric Name Metric Value Global Rank Benchmark
Time Series Regression MLO-Cn2 Minute Climatology RMSE 0.504 # 3
Time Series Regression MLO-Cn2 Climatology RMSE 0.661 # 4
Time Series Regression MLO-Cn2 Persistence RMSE 1.209 # 5
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 RNN RMSE 0.581 # 4
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 GBRT RMSE 0.428 # 1
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 Climatology RMSE 0.658 # 5
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 Minute Climatology RMSE 0.551 # 3
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 Persistence RMSE 1.227 # 7
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 Linear Forecast RMSE 0.930 # 6
Time Series Forecasting MLO-Cn2 Mean Window Forecast RMSE 0.481 # 2
Time Series Regression MLO-Cn2 GBRT RMSE 0.212 # 1
Time Series Regression MLO-Cn2 RNN RMSE 0.336 # 2
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Climatology RMSE 0.632 # 4
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Persistence RMSE 1.208 # 7
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Offshore Macro Meteorological RMSE 0.675 # 5
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Macro Meteorological RMSE 1.217 # 8
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Air-Water Temperature Difference RMSE 1.046 # 6
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference RMSE 0.458 # 1
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) RNN RMSE 0.530 # 2
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) GBRT RMSE 1.340 # 9
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (long-term) Minute Climatology RMSE 0.625 # 3
Time Series Forecasting USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) RNN RMSE 0.187 # 3
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) RNN RMSE 0.375 # 5
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) GBRT RMSE 0.299 # 2
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Hybrid Air-Water Temperature Difference RMSE 0.303 # 3
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Climatology RMSE 0.480 # 7
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Minute Climatology RMSE 0.452 # 6
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Persistence RMSE 0.758 # 8
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Macro Meteorological RMSE 0.864 # 9
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Air-Water Temperature Difference RMSE 0.910 # 10
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Offshore Macro Meteorological RMSE 0.178 # 1
Time Series Forecasting USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) GBRT RMSE 0.160 # 1
Time Series Forecasting USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Minute Climatology RMSE 0.453 # 4
Time Series Forecasting USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Persistence RMSE 0.821 # 5
Time Series Forecasting USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Mean Window Forecast RMSE 0.182 # 2
Time Series Regression USNA-Cn2 (short-duration) Linear Forecast RMSE 0.358 # 4

Methods